Ontario Pre-Construction Note: Rates Hold, Toronto Starts Rise

Ontario Pre-Construction Market Note — July 30, 2026

Rates held, Toronto starts jumped 25%, and the HST rebate window on new Ontario homes stays open through March 2027. Here's a plain read on the rates, supply, and policy that matter for anyone buying or holding pre-construction in Ontario — plus where things stand across the projects LIQWD tracks.

Rates: held again, next decision in September

On July 15, <cite index="8-1">the Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25 per cent</cite>. <cite index="13-1,13-4">That was a hold for a sixth consecutive time, announced alongside the Bank's quarterly Monetary Policy Report.</cite> The Bank's stated view was that <cite index="11-5">the current policy rate remains appropriate to sustain the economic recovery and bring inflation back to the 2% target.</cite>

For buyers, the takeaway is stability, not a shift. <cite index="12-9,12-10,12-13,12-14">The BoC rate can directly affect your mortgage payments depending on your mortgage type — a variable-rate change hits payments immediately, while a fixed rate holds until the end of your term.</cite> <cite index="11-9">The next interest rate announcement is scheduled for September 2, 2026.</cite> On July 29, the Bank also published its summary of deliberations behind the July decision, adding detail to that hold.

Supply: Toronto starts up, national trend soft

The latest CMHC release (June data, published July 16) showed a mixed national picture. <cite index="16-11,16-12">The six-month trend in housing starts decreased 2.8% to 248,123 units, based on a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate.</cite> <cite index="16-13,16-14">Actual monthly starts in centres of 10,000-plus were down 13% year-over-year, with the year-to-date total at 113,017 units, down 1% from the same period in 2025.</cite>

The regional detail is where Ontario buyers should focus: <cite index="18-8">Toronto starts increased 25% due to higher multi-unit starts</cite> — a sharp contrast with <cite index="18-7">Vancouver's 35% decrease.</cite> One structural note from CMHC's supply work: <cite index="19-5,19-6,19-7">the starts data shows a shift in builder preferences toward rental and smaller projects, as financing challenges and economic uncertainty pushed developers toward projects requiring lower financial commitment that were quicker to deliver.</cite> Separately, reporting on the June figures noted that <cite index="20-3">58% of new starts this year are purpose-built rentals.</cite>

Policy: HST relief and development-charge cost-matching

Two federal-provincial measures from earlier in 2026 remain directly relevant to purchase decisions now.

• HST relief. Under the March partnership, <cite index="30-9">the full 13% HST will be removed for new homes in Ontario valued up to $1 million, saving buyers up to $130,000.</cite> <cite index="30-10">That maximum $130,000 rebate is maintained for new homes valued up to $1.5 million, then decreases proportionally to a minimum of $24,000 for homes valued at $1.85 million and above.</cite> Timing matters: <cite index="30-11">this applies to eligible agreements signed between April 1, 2026, and March 31, 2027.</cite>
• Development charges. On the cost side, <cite index="30-1">the federal government and Ontario agreed to cost-match a total of $8.8 billion over 10 years focused on housing-enabling infrastructure projects</cite> to lower development charges.

Activity continued this month, too: <cite index="27-1,27-4">on July 17 the federal government announced over $133 million through the Affordable Housing Fund to help build 294 affordable rental homes in Toronto.</cite>

LIQWD tracked inventory

Across the projects on our platform as of July 30, LIQWD's tracked inventory shows:

• Toronto — 120 active projects (117 newly listed in the last 30 days)
• Brampton — 55 (39 new), starting at $419,990
• Mississauga — 54 (10 new)
• Old Toronto — 47 (34 new)
• Markham — 41 (28 new), starting at $661,990
• Richmond Hill — 40 (32 new)
• Oakville — 37 (30 new), starting at $389,900
• Miami — 55 active projects, all newly listed, from $300,000

As always, these are LIQWD's own platform figures, not whole-market totals.

Bottom line

Rates are steady into September, Toronto starts are running against the national trend, and the HST rebate window remains open for qualifying agreements through March 2027. None of this is a forecast — just the facts worth checking against your own numbers and legal advice before you sign.

Sources

• https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/07/15/text-of-the-bank-of-canadas-latest-interest-rate-decision/
• https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-schedule/
• https://stlawyers.ca/blog-news/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-july-2026/
• https://www.rbcroyalbank.com/en-ca/my-money-matters/money-academy/economics-101/understanding-interest-rates/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement/
• https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/07/release-the-bank-canadas-summary-deliberations-2026-07-29/
• https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/housing-starts-and-construction-data-for-june-2026-882510300.html
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/housing-market-data/monthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report
• https://thehub.ca/2026/07/28/canadian-housing-construction-drops-well-below-half-of-carney-governments-500000-target-apartments-dominate-new-builds/
• https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/03/30/prime-minister-carney-secures-new-partnership-ontario-cut-taxes
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/federal-government-helps-build-294-homes-toronto