Ontario Pre-Construction Market Note: Rate Hold & HST Rebate, July 2026

Market Note — July 31, 2026

Three fixed reference points frame Ontario pre-construction decisions this month: a policy rate held at 2.25%, a full-HST new-home rebate tied to agreements signed before March 31, 2027, and softer national housing starts. Here is what is on the record, plus how it lines up with the inventory we track on LIQWD.

Rates: held again, and steady

<cite index="8-4">The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25 per cent, with the Bank Rate at 2.5 per cent and the deposit rate at 2.20 per cent.</cite> <cite index="14-1">This was a policy interest rate hold for a sixth consecutive time.</cite>

The Bank's own read was cautious but improving: <cite index="15-4,15-5,15-6">Canada's economy has been weak but is showing signs of improvement. Growth is expected to pick up, and inflation is projected to ease to around 2%. Uncertainty remains elevated.</cite> <cite index="15-2">The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 2, 2026.</cite>

A held rate does not lower carrying costs by itself, but it removes near-term guesswork on the financing side of a purchase decision.

Policy: the HST rebate window on new homes

The most directly relevant policy for pre-construction buyers is the federal-Ontario rebate. <cite index="32-7">Building on the elimination of the GST for first-time homebuyers last year, the full 13% of the HST will be removed for new homes in Ontario valued up to $1 million, saving buyers up to $130,000.</cite> <cite index="32-8">This maximum rebate of $130,000 would be maintained for new homes valued up to $1.5 million, and would decrease proportionally to a maximum of $24,000 for homes valued at $1.85 million and above.</cite>

Timing is the catch. <cite index="32-9">This would apply to eligible agreements signed between April 1, 2026, and March 31, 2027.</cite> Reporting this week noted the window applies more broadly, with <cite index="30-10">Ontario's 2026 budget including a policy rebating the full 13 percent HST for all qualifying new-home buyers (not just first-time buyers), for an April 2026–March 2027 window.</cite>

Supply: national starts softening, Ontario mixed

The latest CMHC release showed a national pullback. <cite index="17-4">The six-month trend in housing starts was down in June compared to May, with a decrease of 2.8% to 248,123 units.</cite> Within that, <cite index="16-6">Toronto starts increased 25% due to higher multi-unit starts.</cite>

The picture for the housing pre-construction buyers want is uneven. One analysis of the June CMHC data noted <cite index="23-11">that single-detached starts were down almost a fifth while multi-unit was up almost 6%, netting out to no real change</cite> in Ontario's total. Looking further out, CMHC's summer update indicated <cite index="22-9">housing starts are expected to decline in BC between 2026 and 2028, but are expected to increase in Ontario.</cite> CMHC also flagged a data caveat: <cite index="20-5,20-6,20-7">it is conducting a methodology review of the unabsorbed inventory data series in the Ontario context, and asks that the data be used with caution in the meantime.</cite>

What we're tracking on LIQWD

Against that backdrop, LIQWD's tracked inventory shows a steady flow of new listings as of July 31, 2026:

• Toronto: 120 active listed projects (117 newly listed in the past 30 days), from $1,901
• Brampton: 55 active projects (39 new), from $419,990
• Mississauga: 54 active projects (10 new), from $390,900
• Old Toronto: 47 active projects (34 new), from $350,990
• Markham: 41 active projects (28 new), from $661,990
• Richmond Hill: 40 active projects (32 new), from $399,990
• Oakville: 37 active projects (30 new), from $389,900
• Miami (cross-border comparison): 55 projects (all 55 new), from $300,000

These figures reflect LIQWD's own platform inventory, not the total market.

The takeaway

This month's fixed reference points: a policy rate held at 2.25%, an HST rebate tied to agreements signed before March 31, 2027, and softer national starts alongside a Toronto multi-unit uptick. None of this guarantees any price movement or return — verify pricing, deposit schedules, and rebate eligibility on each specific agreement with your own lawyer before signing.

Sources

• https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/07/15/text-of-the-bank-of-canadas-latest-interest-rate-decision/
• https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/07/fad-press-release-2026-07-15/
• https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-schedule/
• https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/03/30/prime-minister-carney-secures-new-partnership-ontario-cut-taxes
• https://thehub.ca/2026/07/29/canada-is-building-at-half-the-500000-home-target-and-building-young-people-into-renters/
• https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/housing-starts-and-construction-data-for-june-2026-882510300.html
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-june-2026
• https://modularhomes400.com/market
• https://storeys.com/cmhc-summer-housing-market-update/
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/housing-market-data/monthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables