Ontario Pre-Construction Note: Rate Hold, Toronto's Rental Push (August 2026)

The rate backdrop for buyers

Financing conditions held steady into this week. <cite index="6-1,6-2">The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%, and the next scheduled announcement is September 2, 2026.</cite> This was <cite index="2-3">the Bank's sixth consecutive hold, made on July 15 alongside its quarterly Monetary Policy Report.</cite>

For buyers timing a closing or a rate hold, the near-term signal is continuity, not movement. <cite index="1-15,1-16">The forward curve and recent communication from the Bank of Canada both suggest the policy rate is expected to remain broadly stable through 2026, with the Bank indicating a preference for maintaining rate continuity as it balances competing risks.</cite> None of this promises where rates go next — the September 2 decision is the next scheduled checkpoint.

Federal-city funding aimed at rental supply

The week's biggest Ontario headline was a Toronto rental commitment. <cite index="13-1,13-4">The federal government is investing at least $2.7 billion to build more than 18 housing projects across Toronto, with Prime Minister Mark Carney saying the funds will be invested over the next three years.</cite> On the detail: <cite index="13-5,13-6">more than 5,600 new rental homes will be built with the money, at least 1,800 of them affordable or rent-controlled, with construction beginning on roughly 4,500 new homes by the end of the year.</cite>

The framing matters for anyone tracking supply. <cite index="10-5,10-6">In Toronto, thousands of homes have already been planned, permitted and approved but lack the financing to begin construction, and the partnership is meant to unlock these projects and start building.</cite> This is largely purpose-built rental rather than for-sale condo stock, so the direct effect on pre-construction ownership inventory is indirect — but it signals where public capital is flowing right now.

What the supply data is showing

The most recent national starts figures were mixed. <cite index="19-1,19-2">There were 20,265 units recorded in June 2026, compared with 23,292 in June 2025, and the year-to-date total was 113,017 units, down 1% from the same period in 2025.</cite> Within that, <cite index="19-5">Toronto starts increased 25% due to higher multi-unit starts.</cite>

Looking further out, CMHC has flagged softness specifically in the condo segment:

• <cite index="20-1,20-2">Housing starts in Ontario are expected to decline in 2026, following large drops in previous years, concentrated in the GTA, Ottawa and Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo.</cite>
• <cite index="20-15">Condominium apartments will see the largest decline due to very low pre-construction sales, which point to further declines.</cite>

Mark your calendar for the next data point: <cite index="18-10">CMHC will release the July housing starts data on August 18 at 8:15 AM.</cite>

How LIQWD's tracked inventory looks today

As of August 9, 2026, LIQWD's tracked inventory shows Toronto with the deepest project list: 121 active listed projects (9 newly listed in the last 30 days), with starting prices from $1,901 for entry allocations. Beyond the core, LIQWD tracks:

• Old Toronto — 47 active projects (from $350,990)
• Mississauga — 54 (from $390,900; none newly listed in 30 days)
• Brampton — 55 (2 new; from $419,990)
• Richmond Hill — 40 (from $399,990)
• Markham — 41 (1 new; from $661,990)
• Oakville — 37 (4 new; from $389,900)

New-listing momentum is concentrated: Toronto (9) and Oakville (4) added the most in the last 30 days, while Mississauga, Old Toronto and Richmond Hill each added none. For comparison, our Miami inventory sits at 55 projects with 17 newly listed in 30 days (from $300,000) — the fastest new-listing pace on the platform this month. These are LIQWD's own tracked-inventory counts, not a measure of the whole market.

The practical read

With the policy rate on hold and the next decision September 2, buyers have a stable financing backdrop for now, and the July starts release on August 18 will refine the GTA supply picture. This week's public funding is tilted toward rental rather than for-sale condo product — consistent with CMHC's view of weak pre-construction condo sales. As always, run your own numbers against a stress-tested rate and confirm project-specific terms directly.

Sources

• https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/07/fad-press-release-2026-07-15/
• https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-schedule/
• https://wowa.ca/bank-of-canada-interest-rate
• https://canada.constructconnect.com/dcn/news/government/2026/08/carney-promises-2-7-billion-to-build-rental-homes-in-toronto
• https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2026/08/05/government-canada-and-city-toronto-build-thousands-new-rental-homes
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-data/data-tables/housing-market-data/monthly-housing-starts-construction-data-tables
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-june-2026
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook