Ontario Pre-Construction Market Note: August 2026

The week at a glance

Three stories shape the picture for Ontario new-construction buyers this week: a large federal-municipal financing deal in Toronto, a rate environment that stayed put through the summer, and CMHC data pointing to a slower-for-longer market. Here's what the sources say — and how our own tracked pre-construction inventory currently stands.

Rates: still on hold at 2.25%

The borrowing backdrop for pre-construction buyers hasn't moved. <cite index="10-1">The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25 per cent on Wednesday, July 15, 2026</cite> — <cite index="14-1">a hold for the sixth consecutive time.</cite> In its statement, <cite index="10-5,10-6">the Bank said Canada's economy is showing signs of improvement, with growth picking up and inflation projected to ease gradually from its recent spike.</cite>

If you're timing a deposit schedule or firming up mortgage plans, the next checkpoint is set: <cite index="13-18">the next Bank of Canada announcement is Wednesday, September 2, 2026.</cite> A hold keeps variable-rate assumptions steady, but the number to watch is the qualifying rate at closing — not today's overnight rate.

Toronto's $2.7B rental-financing announcement

The week's biggest supply-side story: <cite index="17-3">the federal government pledged $2.7 billion over three years to build more than 18 housing projects across the city of Toronto.</cite> <cite index="17-1">The partnership between the government of Canada and city of Toronto includes 5,600 rental homes, 1,800 of which will be "deeply affordable," supportive or rent-controlled.</cite>

The structure is worth understanding, because it targets projects that were approved but stuck. <cite index="20-7">Carney said many Toronto projects are stalled not by a lack of land or approvals, but because financing costs and funding gaps have prevented them from breaking ground.</cite>

The money flows through two channels:

• Non-market housing via Build Canada Homes, <cite index="18-15,18-16">including more than $310 million to advance nine projects on city-owned land.</cite>
• Market-rate financing: <cite index="22-7,22-8">roughly $1.8 billion through CMHC's Apartment Construction Loan Program for nine projects across downtown Toronto, Leaside, Flemingdon Park, the Junction Triangle, Scarborough and Weston, expected to create 3,720 units.</cite>

<cite index="19-2">The City of Toronto is contributing $530 million, including 99-year exemptions from municipal and school property taxes.</cite>

A realistic read for buyers: this is rental supply, not condo-ownership stock, and delivery is staged. <cite index="21-11">Carney said 4,500 new homes — 80 per cent of the total — will be under construction by year's end.</cite>

CMHC signals: softer starts, more choice

The data continues to point to a subdued new-construction market in Ontario. <cite index="30-5">In its 2026 Summer Housing Market Outlook, CMHC now expects weaker activity for the rest of 2026, including slower home sales, modest price declines, fewer housing starts and continued economic uncertainty.</cite> <cite index="30-14,30-15">Ontario is expected to be among the provinces most affected, with housing starts potentially falling to near two-decade lows in 2026, largely because of extremely weak condominium pre-construction demand.</cite>

The most recent monthly print, though, wasn't uniformly weak: <cite index="26-1">in June 2026, Toronto starts increased 25% on higher multi-unit starts.</cite> The next data point has a date: <cite index="26-5">CMHC releases July housing starts on August 18.</cite>

For buyers, the trade-off in a slower market is straightforward. <cite index="30-16">For GTA buyers, this could mean greater choice and stronger negotiating power.</cite>

LIQWD's tracked inventory as of Aug 8, 2026

For context on selection, here's what our platform currently tracks (LIQWD's tracked inventory, not the whole market):

• Toronto: 121 active projects (11 new in 30 days), from $1,901
• Brampton: 55 active projects (35 new in 30 days), from $419,990
• Mississauga: 54 active projects (4 new in 30 days), from $390,900
• Old Toronto: 47 active projects (34 new in 30 days), from $350,990
• Markham: 41 active projects (16 new in 30 days), from $661,990
• Richmond Hill: 40 active projects (22 new in 30 days), from $399,990
• Oakville: 37 active projects (24 new in 30 days), from $389,900
• Miami (cross-border): 55 active projects (17 new in 30 days), from $300,000

The wave of newly listed projects in the last 30 days — concentrated in Brampton, Old Toronto, Oakville and Richmond Hill on our platform — fits a market where selection is wide and buyers can take time to compare. As always, verify deposit structures, completion timelines and agreements directly with each builder before committing. Nothing here is a forecast or a promise of returns.

Sources

• https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/07/15/text-of-the-bank-of-canadas-latest-interest-rate-decision/
• https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-schedule/
• https://www.rbcroyalbank.com/en-ca/my-money-matters/money-academy/economics-101/understanding-interest-rates/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-announcement/
• https://ca.news.yahoo.com/carney-pledges-2-7b-affordable-162451358.html
• https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-affordable-housing-announcement-9.7297009
• https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/carney-pledges-27b-to-build-thousands-of-toronto-rentals/585238
• https://www.cbc.ca/lite/story/9.7297009
• https://www.cp24.com/local/toronto/2026/08/05/carney-promises-27-billion-to-build-rental-homes-in-toronto/
• https://cctvmedium.com/carney-announces-2-7b-toronto-rental-housing-plan/
• https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/media-newsroom/news-releases/2026/housing-starts-june-2026
• https://www.jdlrealty.ca/cmhc-lowers-canada-housing-market-forecast-is-now-a-good-time-to-buy-in-the-gta/